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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Miami FL

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:28.0
Current RPI:28
Expected SOS:50
Current SOS:50
Current Record:22-9
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:19
Expected OOC SOS:155



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-928.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami FL.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Gardner Webb (244.0)BSthH77-45W100%0.0
11-12Navy (200.0)PatH89-55W100%0.0
11-16Florida A&M (332.0)MEACH90-59W100%0.0
11-22La Salle (202.0)A10N46-57W100%0.0
11-25North Florida (218.0)ASunH86-65W100%0.0
11-29Minnesota (171.0)B10A81-86W100%0.0
12-2Princeton (226.0)IvyN80-52W100%0.0
12-5Boston University (212.0)PatH69-54W100%0.0
12-16George Washington (195.0)A10A50-59W100%0.0
12-22Hawaii (213.0)BWA57-75W100%0.0
12-23New Mexico St. (35.0)WACN54-63L0%0.0
12-25Middle Tennessee (33.0)CUSAN84-81W100%0.0
12-30Pittsburgh (217.0)ACCA53-67W100%0.0
1-3Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCA64-54L0%0.0
1-7Florida St. (54.0)ACCH80-74W100%0.0
1-13Clemson (11.0)ACCA72-63L0%0.0
1-15Duke (7.0)ACCH75-83L0%0.0
1-21North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCA81-86W100%0.0
1-24Louisville (38.0)ACCH78-75W100%0.0
1-27Florida St. (54.0)ACCA103-94L0%0.0
1-31Pittsburgh (217.0)ACCH69-57W100%0.0
2-3Virginia Tech (61.0)ACCA75-84W100%0.0
2-7Wake Forest (160.0)ACCH87-81W100%0.0
2-10Boston College (96.0)ACCA72-70L0%0.0
2-13Virginia (1.0)ACCH50-59L0%0.0
2-17Syracuse (45.0)ACCH55-62L0%0.0
2-19Notre Dame (70.0)ACCA74-77W100%0.0
2-24Boston College (96.0)ACCH79-78W100%0.0
2-27North Carolina (4.0)ACCA88-91W100%0.0
3-3Virginia Tech (61.0)ACCH69-68W100%0.0
3-8North Carolina (4.0)ACCN65-82L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami FL's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Miami FL's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Miami FL.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Miami FLACC26.0326.0370.7570.7510.8010.80
Boston CollegeACC3.853.8556.2556.250.480.48
North CarolinaACC3.823.8272.7372.731.741.74
Florida St.ACC3.793.7965.5265.521.181.18
PittsburghACC3.773.7726.6726.67-1.76-1.76
Virginia TechACC3.743.7470.0070.001.501.50
Notre DameACC2.332.3359.3859.380.440.44
LouisvilleACC2.312.3162.5062.500.580.58
DukeACC2.302.3078.1278.121.291.29
SyracuseACC2.282.2859.3859.380.430.43
VirginiaACC2.282.2893.7593.751.991.99
ClemsonACC2.282.2870.9770.970.960.96
Georgia TechACC2.232.2338.7138.71-0.50-0.50
North Carolina St.ACC2.232.2367.7467.740.790.79
Wake ForestACC2.182.1836.6736.67-0.58-0.58
George WashingtonA101.721.7246.8846.88-0.11-0.11
NavyPat1.721.7263.3363.330.460.46
PrincetonIvy1.691.6944.4444.44-0.19-0.19
La SalleA101.681.6841.9441.94-0.27-0.27
Florida A&MMEAC1.661.6625.0025.00-0.83-0.83
Boston UniversityPat1.661.6648.2848.28-0.06-0.06
HawaiiBW1.641.6455.5655.560.180.18
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.641.6479.3179.310.960.96
North FloridaASun1.641.6437.9337.93-0.40-0.40
Gardner WebbBSth1.611.6139.2939.29-0.35-0.35
MinnesotaB101.611.6148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC1.611.6182.7682.761.061.06
LehighPat0.240.2451.7251.720.010.01
BucknellPat0.200.2073.5373.530.100.10
DavidsonA100.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
ColgatePat0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
FordhamA100.180.1829.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
Loyola MDPat0.160.1626.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Holy CrossPat0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
Saint LouisA100.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.150.1587.8887.880.110.11
LafayettePat0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
HarvardIvy0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1326.9226.92-0.06-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.130.1323.0823.08-0.07-0.07
HowardMEAC0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
VCUA100.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
MassachusettsA100.130.1339.3939.39-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
DuquesneA100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
UC IrvineBW0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1170.0070.000.040.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1165.5265.520.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.110.1110.7110.71-0.08-0.08
High PointBSth0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
AmericanPat0.110.1120.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.110.113.333.33-0.10-0.10
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
RutgersB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
IowaB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.106.676.67-0.09-0.09
Rhode IslandA100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
George MasonA100.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
WoffordSC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
TulaneAmer0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.090.0924.1424.14-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
YaleIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
CornellIvy0.080.0840.7440.74-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
NJITASun0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
UMKCWAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
BryantNEC0.080.089.689.68-0.06-0.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0815.6215.62-0.05-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
TowsonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
TempleAmer0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
West VirginiaB120.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
MaineAE0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0582.7682.760.030.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
TexasB120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
VMISC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
KansasB120.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Seton HallBE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
XavierBE0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02